A new season of football in the NFL means another shot at beating the book betting on the games. There are a number of different ways to try and gain an edge wagering on NFL games given just how sharp the oddsmaker’s betting lines can be. One of the easiest ways to gain an edge is to consistently track the movement of the betting line from the time they are first released on Sunday night right up until kickoff that following Sunday.
When the Online Bookmakers do release the initial betting lines for that week’s NFL games they are usually right on the money. NFL football is easily the heaviest bet league there is and sportsbooks rely on the betting lines for the games to be right where they need them to help divert an equal amount of money on both sides of any matchup on the board. The main reason why a pointspread or total line does move one way or other as the week wears on is a reflection of the early money coming in from the betting public or the sharps and other betting syndicates out there. As the week progresses into the weekend, these lines can move even more with the additional money that is being bet on the games.
The best way to make money tracking NFL betting line movements is to handicap a matchup at face value and then determine what you think should be the actual spread or total for that game. You do not have to be a professional handicapper to spot a betting line that may be a bit generous one way or the other. If the advantage is already in your favor, then you might want to bet that game right away, especially when going with a favorite. However, if you have your eye on an underdog, you may want to track that line until you are closer to a game’s actual kickoff before pulling the trigger on the actual bet.
The money coming in from the betting public will have a very subtle effect on the movement of a NFL betting line, while any heavy sharp action could result steeper move of more than half a point here and there. This is why you should not only make note of the opening number, but also track how many times a particular betting line may have moved over the course of the week. Any sudden movements one way or the other may be a clear sign that there is some significant sharp action on that particular game.
Resist the temptation to put too much stock in the NFL injury reports when it comes to the overall effect on line movements. Injuries are very important part of the handicapping process and you always need to note what kind of advantage they may provide against the opposing team, but unless it is a team’s starting quarterback, injuries are not going to have a major impact on a game’s pointspread or total line. In most cases, a game will remain “off the board” if there is any question surrounding the availability of one of the NFL’s top quarterbacks heading into that Sunday’s games.
The bottom line is that millions and millions of dollars are won and lost on a half point move one way or the other. You always want to look for the best opportunities to use that half point to your advantage. If you do not get the spread or the total that you are looking for then do not be afraid to just walk away from betting that game.